Beneath the U.N. agreement lies a darker truth, Osaka says. No fossil fuel company or country has a real plan for phasing out fossil fuels. On the contrary, almost all expect to continue extracting coal, oil and gas far into the future and far beyond what is needed to cut emissions enough to meet established climate goals. Part of the reason is that almost every country and company sees itself in a unique position — the future last producer of fossil fuels.

“Every country has their own reason why they should be the last,” said Michael Lazarus, a senior scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute and one of the authors of the Production Gap Report, which analyzed the plans countries have for fossil fuel expansion. That report shows that all the world’s nations plan to produce twice as much fossil fuel as would be consistent with holding global average temperatures to no more than 1.5º C above pre-industrial levels.

The report analyzed fossil fuel production estimates from the governments of 20 large fossil fuel producing countries, including the United States, Russia, Mexico and the United Arab Emirates. By 2050, the gap is projected to be even larger. Those countries expect to produce 2½ times more fossil fuel in 2050 than would align with a target of 2ºC. Make no mistake, at 2ºC, the Earth is well on its way to becoming a baked potato where few humans can survive.

“It’s a complete disconnect between what governments are planning for and what is required to meet Paris goals,” said Greg Muttitt, a senior associate at the International Institute for Sustainable Development. In other words, all of the hoopla over the 28 climate conferences so far has had no discernible effect on the fossil fuel industry.