Dive Brief:
- The Dodge Momentum Index, a benchmark that measures nonresidential construction planning, climbed 7.9% in July due to notable increases across several commercial and institutional segments, according to the Dodge Construction Network.
- Commercial planning, fueled by data center work, jumped 6.8% in July, while institutional planning, which includes education, life sciences and healthcare builds, surged 11.1% over the month.
- “The potential Fed rate cut in September is becoming increasingly more likely, alongside slower inflation and weaker labor market conditions,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network, in the release. “This is likely driving owners and developers to remain optimistic about 2025 market conditions and pushing more projects into the planning queue.”
Dive Insight:
The continued growth in construction planning — which leads actual construction spending by 12 months — has come as renewed fears sprouted this month that the U.S. economy may be sinking into recession. In contrast to anxiety over last week’s soft jobs report, the planning report provides evidence that owners and developers are simply waiting for lower rates to deploy capital.
Data center projects, for example, continue to have an outsized influence on nonresidential planning activity, but momentum is building across many other major sectors as well, said Martin in the release.
For instance, beyond the data center juggernaut, retail construction planning has been steadily accelerating over the past eight months too, reflecting growing confidence in the sector, said Martin. On the institutional side, healthcare projects led the charge in driving growth in July, according to the report.
From an annual perspective, the DMI increased 17% compared to July 2023, with the commercial segment up 35%. Over the same period, institutional planning fell 14%.
A total of 23 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning during July. The largest commercial sector projects included:
- The $483 million Microsoft SAT82 data center in Castroville, Texas.
- The $480 million Yorkville data center campus in Little Rock Township, Illinois.
The largest institutional projects to enter planning included:
- The $325 million UCSF Children’s Hospital renovation in Oakland, California.
- The $278 million Memorial Hermann Cypress Hospital expansion in Cypress, Texas.
But the news isn’t all rosy. Despite the momentum in planning, business conditions at architecture firms continue to remain soft. The Architectural Billings Index, an indicator of construction work nine to 12 months out, declined for the seventeenth consecutive month, according to the most recent data from the American Institute of Architects.
Nevertheless, architecture firms remain generally optimistic that conditions will start to improve once interest rates begin to decline, most likely in September, according to the ABI report.